October Rainfall Predictions: La Niña Has Arrived

LAST week the Bureau of Meteorology declared the arrival of the La Niña weather pattern, which is associated with above-average spring rainfall for Australia, particularly across the east and north.

Warmer sea surface temperatures on the Pacific Ocean will lead to convergent uplift (rising air), followed by cloud cover and rainfall, meaning Scone could surpass the October average rainfall total of 46.5 millimetres. 

See Upper Hunter average totals below

The six wettest winter-spring periods ever recorded in eastern Australia occurred during La Niña years.

Minimum temperatures are expected to be generally warmer and maximum temperatures generally higher.

La Niña is reevaluated every month however, it is predicted to begin to contract to eastern Australia in summer.

If La Niña reaches until January, Scone is expected to see above-average rainfall greater than 81.1 millimetres.

Upper Hunter October average rainfall:

• Aberdeen: 32.1mm
• Blandford: 49.5mm
  

  Photo by the Bureau of Meteorology.

• Cassilis: 49.9mm
• Glenbawn: 36.7mm
• Hunter Springs: 82.7mm
• Kars Springs: 62.3mm
• Merriwa: 48.3mm
• Moonan Dam 36.8mm
• Mount Barrington Lookout: 141.9mm
• Murrurundi: 47.6mm
• Nundle: 65.6mm
• Parkville: 38.8mm
• Rouchel: 33.1mm
• Scone: 46.5mm
• Stoney Creek: 36.5mm
• Wingen: 33.6mm

Some monthly totals for the Upper Hunter may not be included as the Bureau of Meteorology manually enters the daily rainfall totals of certain areas.